The month of October 2024 brought India’s warmest October in over a century, with temperatures peaking nearly 1.2℃ above the normal range. This historical high, reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), aligns with an increasing trend of warmer temperatures over recent years.
October’s unusual warmth was most apparent in night temperatures, which reached a record mean of 21.8℃—the highest in 123 years. The overall monthly average was reported at 26.9℃, compared to the usual October norm of 25.7℃.
This rising pattern is especially concerning because October often marks the onset of cooler weather in India, signaling a gradual transition into winter. Yet, this year, warmth persisted, affecting various regions and pointing to potential long-term climate shifts.
Factors Behind October’s Temperature Surge
The significant rise in October temperatures this year was largely attributed to a few critical meteorological factors. According to the IMD, one major cause was the absence of sufficient Western Disturbances (WDs) over Northwest India.
These disturbances, which are extratropical storms originating from the Mediterranean, typically bring cooler temperatures and rainfall to the western Himalayas and Northwest India. Without this cooling influence, temperatures remained high across large portions of the country.
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Additionally, four active low-pressure systems developed over the Indian region during October, one of which escalated into a cyclonic storm. These low-pressure systems contributed to an increase in easterly winds, which generally bring warmer air to the region.
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In contrast, cooler temperatures are associated with northwesterly winds, which were notably weaker this October. The delayed retreat of the southwest monsoon, another essential factor, further compounded the issue, as monsoonal winds kept temperatures elevated instead of allowing the cool air typically expected at this time of year.
Recent Trends in Rising October Temperatures
The record-breaking temperatures in October are not an isolated incident but rather part of a larger warming trend observed in India. Four out of the five hottest Octobers on record since 1901 have occurred within the past decade, including 2024, 2017, 2015, and 2020.
This pattern demonstrates a concerning acceleration of temperature increases across the country, particularly in the southern peninsula, which has been experiencing higher day and night temperatures in recent years.
A combination of factors contributes to this trend, from shifting weather patterns to increasing global temperatures due to climate change. As temperatures continue to rise, the environmental and societal impacts of this warming are becoming more pronounced.
Regions like Northwest India, which once relied on seasonal cooling from Western Disturbances, may face challenges as these cooling patterns become less predictable and less frequent.
Implications for the Onset of Winter and La Niña’s Delayed Impact
While October’s warm weather persists, the IMD has forecasted a gradual cooling as the country moves deeper into November. However, this cooling is expected to be slow, with no sharp drop in temperatures anticipated.
Winter in India typically begins to make its presence felt in December, with the IMD officially defining January and February as the core winter months. Nevertheless, the lack of significant cooling in October could delay the arrival of cooler weather, altering the timing and length of the winter season.
Adding another layer to the weather forecast, the development of the La Niña phenomenon—a cooling oceanic pattern—is also delayed. La Niña, known to influence cooler and wetter conditions, especially in the southern regions of India, might only begin affecting the climate by the end of the year.
Currently, neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Should La Niña emerge towards January and February, its potential to bring cooler temperatures to India could counterbalance some of the prolonged warmth observed in recent months.
The delay in La Niña’s impact and the persistent warmth throughout October highlight the complexities of predicting seasonal weather patterns. This shifting weather cycle, marked by sporadic monsoons and unseasonably warm months, underscores the need for adaptive strategies to cope with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Broader Implications for India’s Climate and Ecosystems
India’s record-breaking October heatwave is not merely a weather anomaly but a signal of broader climatic changes. The persistent warming trend poses several risks to India’s biodiversity, ecosystems, and agricultural cycles.
Unseasonably high temperatures can disrupt crop yields, especially for crops that rely on specific temperature ranges for optimal growth. Farmers, already grappling with erratic rainfall patterns, face increased risks from temperature fluctuations that can impact planting and harvesting cycles.
Moreover, warmer temperatures have implications for water resources in the region. Reduced Western Disturbance activity means less snowfall in the western Himalayas, affecting rivers like the Ganges, which rely on snowmelt for a significant portion of their flow.
Declining water availability could create challenges for agricultural, industrial, and domestic water needs, putting additional strain on water management systems.
In addition to affecting agriculture and water resources, rising temperatures may also impact public health. Higher temperatures increase the likelihood of heat-related illnesses, particularly during unexpected warm spells outside the usual summer months.
Vulnerable populations, such as the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions, may experience heightened risks due to these prolonged warm periods.
India’s warmest October since 1901 serves as a stark reminder of the urgency of climate action. Rising temperatures, shifting monsoon patterns, and delayed seasonal transitions all point towards a changing climate that requires both immediate mitigation efforts and long-term adaptation strategies.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in renewable energy sources can help slow down the rate of warming, while improved infrastructure and water management systems can enhance resilience against extreme weather events.
As India continues to witness record-breaking temperatures, policymakers, scientists, and communities must work together to address the pressing issues posed by climate change. Proactive measures, such as adopting climate-smart agriculture practices, enhancing water conservation efforts, and protecting vulnerable ecosystems, will be crucial in building resilience to the growing threats of climate variability.
India’s record October temperatures may well be a preview of what lies ahead if collective action on climate change is delayed, making this an opportune moment to strengthen efforts to safeguard the nation’s future.
let’s enjoy few years on earth with peace and happiness….✍🏼🙏