Iraq has embarked on its first nationwide population census in nearly four decades, a monumental task aimed at collecting comprehensive demographic data. The last census, conducted in 1987 under Saddam Hussein’s regime, provided limited insights into the country’s population due to the political climate and subsequent conflicts.
With the assistance of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Iraq aims to use this updated data for resource allocation, development planning, and addressing gaps in essential services such as health, education, and housing.
The Historical Context and the Need for a Census
The previous decades have been tumultuous for Iraq, marked by wars, sanctions, and internal strife. The 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ended Saddam Hussein’s rule was followed by years of sectarian violence and the rise of extremist groups like ISIL (ISIS). These events severely disrupted governance and infrastructure, making accurate demographic data a challenge to obtain.
The 1997 census, conducted under Hussein, excluded the three northern governorates that now form the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. This lack of inclusivity highlighted the political complexities of conducting a nationwide census in a country as diverse and divided as Iraq. The current census seeks to overcome these challenges, gathering data from all 18 governorates, including disputed areas like Kirkuk and Diyala.
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The Ministry of Planning has emphasized that this census will provide a clear picture of Iraq’s population distribution and socio-economic needs. By pinpointing disparities in access to resources and services, the government hopes to craft policies that better reflect the needs of its people.
Challenges and Controversies Surrounding the Census
The nationwide census has not been without controversy, particularly in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Kurdish leaders are concerned that an official count could reveal a smaller population than previously estimated, potentially reducing their political influence and economic entitlements.
The Kurdish share of the national budget, currently 12%, is based on an estimated population of six million. However, any revision to this figure could alter resource distribution in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system.
Tensions are particularly high in disputed areas like Kirkuk, Diyala, and Mosul, where control is contested between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government. To address concerns about fairness, the census is being conducted by researchers from all ethnic backgrounds, including Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, and Christians.
Unlike previous censuses, the current count excludes ethnicity and sectarian identity, focusing instead on religion, health, education, and employment. This approach aims to reduce divisive debates over ethnic representation while still providing critical data for development.
Nevertheless, the exclusion of ethnicity has raised questions about the census’s ability to capture Iraq’s complex demographic landscape.
Implications for Iraq’s Future
The outcomes of the census will have far-reaching implications for Iraq’s development and governance. Accurate population data is essential for equitable resource distribution, budget allocations, and infrastructure planning. The findings will likely influence Iraq’s national budget, particularly the allocation to the Kurdish region and other governorates.
For minority communities such as Christians and Yazidis, who have faced displacement and persecution, the census represents an opportunity to quantify their numbers and advocate for better representation and support.
Tens of thousands of Yazidi families were displaced from Sinjar due to ISIL atrocities, while hundreds of thousands of Christians have fled Iraq over the past decades. The census could bring their plight into sharper focus, enabling targeted interventions.
Moreover, the data collected will be instrumental in addressing critical gaps in health and education services. By understanding the demographic and socio-economic landscape, the government can design policies that address pressing issues such as unemployment, access to healthcare, and housing shortages.
However, the census also highlights the delicate balance Iraq must maintain in its sectarian and ethnically diverse society. Any perceived bias or inaccuracy in the count could exacerbate existing tensions, particularly between Baghdad and the Kurdish region. Ensuring transparency and fairness in the process will be crucial for fostering trust and national cohesion.
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