Putin has ordered the expansion of the Russian army to become the second largest in the world, only behind China. This decision, which aims to increase the active military personnel to 1.5 million, showcases Russia’s intention to fortify its military strength in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly its involvement in the Ukraine conflict.
The directive marks yet another major shift in Russia’s military strategy, with global ramifications for the balance of power.
Russia’s ambitious military expansion follows a decree issued by Putin, which mandates an increase in the size of the armed forces to a total of 2.38 million personnel, of which 1.5 million are to be active servicemen.
The expansion would place Russia ahead of both the United States and India in terms of active soldiers, positioning Russia as a dominant military force second only to China, which maintains over 2 million active duty service members.
Background of the Expansion
This latest increase is the third such order by Putin since the start of Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022. The move comes amid continued fighting in eastern Ukraine and along the Russia-Ukraine border, where Russian forces have sustained significant casualties.
Despite its larger population compared to Ukraine, Russia has struggled with manpower shortages on the battlefield, prompting this push for additional recruitment.
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However, as both Russian and Ukrainian forces suffer heavy losses, the exact number of casualties remains a military secret on both sides. To replenish its ranks, Russia has successfully attracted volunteers with lucrative contracts, although this has proven insufficient to meet the growing demands of the conflict.
Strategic Implications
Putin’s decision to boost the size of Russia’s army has raised questions about the strategic rationale behind this expansion. Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian parliament’s defense committee, explained that the increase in active troop numbers is part of a broader plan to modernize Russia’s armed forces.
According to Kartapolov, new military units are needed to ensure security in Russia’s north-west, particularly following Finland’s recent accession to NATO, which has significantly changed the regional security dynamic.
Russia’s military is now facing new challenges along its borders with NATO-aligned nations, and this expansion is seen as a necessary step to bolster its defensive capabilities. Kartapolov emphasized that the reconfiguration of Russia’s armed forces is essential to match the current international situation and the increasingly adversarial behavior of its former foreign partners.
Third Expansion Since 2022
Putin has now ordered three official increases in the size of Russia’s armed forces since launching the Ukraine invasion. In 2022, he directed two previous troop increases, first by 137,000 and then by another 170,000 soldiers.
These augmentations were followed by the partial mobilization of over 300,000 troops in September and October 2022, a controversial move that spurred tens of thousands of draft-age men to flee Russia to avoid conscription.
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Despite speculation that another round of mobilization might be on the horizon, the Kremlin has denied such plans, insisting that it will continue to rely on voluntary enlistment for the time being. However, the strain on Russia’s military infrastructure and resources remains significant.
Challenges of Expanding the Russian Army
Putin’s ambitious military expansion plan has not been without its critics. Some experts have raised concerns about whether Russia has the financial resources to sustain such a large standing army.
Dara Massicot, a military expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has questioned whether Moscow is prepared to bear the financial burden that comes with maintaining an army of this size. According to Massicot, Russia would need to make significant increases to its defense budget to cover the cost of both procurement and personnel expenses.
One potential solution for Russia is to increase the size of its conscription pool by expanding the draft or to change the law to allow more women to serve in the military. However, both options present challenges. Expanding the draft is likely to be unpopular among the Russian population, while efforts to integrate more women into the military may face resistance from traditional societal norms.
Massicot has suggested that the expansion could be more of a symbolic gesture aimed at intimidating Russia’s adversaries rather than a serious initiative to grow the military. She argues that the current volunteer recruitment strategy is already showing signs of strain, and adding more personnel could place even greater stress on Russia’s defense budget.
International Reactions and Concerns
The international community is closely watching Putin’s military expansion with a mix of concern and skepticism. NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, are likely to view this move as a direct challenge to the alliance’s presence in the region.
Finland’s accession to NATO has already increased tensions, and the buildup of Russian forces along its borders could lead to a renewed arms race in the region.
In the United States, there are concerns about how Putin’s military growth will affect the broader geopolitical landscape. With Russia now positioning itself as the second-largest military force globally, American defense officials may feel pressure to further increase military spending to maintain the balance of power.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has already drawn considerable Western resources, and this latest move by Russia could prompt a reevaluation of defense strategies in both Europe and North America.
Impact on the Ukraine Conflict
The expansion of Russia’s army is also expected to have a direct impact on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With additional troops at its disposal, Russia may attempt to launch new offensives along the frontlines in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces, already stretched thin by months of fighting, could face even greater pressure in the coming months.
However, the success of Russia’s military expansion in Ukraine is far from guaranteed. Previous attempts to mobilize large numbers of troops have not always translated into battlefield victories, as logistical challenges, low morale, and inadequate training have hampered Russia’s efforts. It remains to be seen whether the increase in troop numbers will be sufficient to shift the momentum of the conflict in Russia’s favor.
Putin’s decision to expand the Russian army to 1.5 million active servicemen is a bold move that signals Russia’s intent to strengthen its military capabilities in the face of international challenges.
The expansion will place Russia as the world’s second-largest military power, but it also raises questions about whether Russia can afford the financial and logistical costs of such a large standing army.
While the increase in troop numbers may bolster Russia’s military presence along its borders and in Ukraine, the long-term sustainability of this expansion remains uncertain. As the war in Ukraine continues with no end in sight, Russia’s ability to manage its growing military and maintain its operational effectiveness will be a critical factor in determining the outcome of the conflict.
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