Russia needs peace deal negotiations now more than ever, as its military resources and manpower dwindle under the prolonged strain of the conflict in Ukraine. The war, which has raged since February 2022, has reached a critical juncture.
Both Moscow and Kyiv face immense challenges, but Russia’s struggle to maintain its military ranks is becoming increasingly evident. Despite making advances in regions like Donetsk, the Kremlin faces significant recruitment difficulties, morale issues, and international scrutiny.
For President Vladimir Putin, a peace deal might be the only path forward, especially with geopolitical shifts and the potential return of a sympathetic U.S. leadership under Donald Trump.
Recruitment Challenges and Troop Shortages
The Russian military’s recruitment problems are deeply rooted in its history and social structure. Even in peacetime, serving in the Russian army has been viewed as undesirable by many young men due to a culture of harsh hazing known as dedovshchina.
This systemic abuse, involving bullying and physical punishment of new recruits, has been prevalent since the 17th century and continues to cast a shadow over military service. The situation has been further exposed after the fall of the Soviet Union, when media reports highlighted poor living conditions, inadequate medical care, and severe malnutrition among soldiers.
As the war drags on, Russia has faced massive casualties. Western assessments estimate that between 115,000 and 160,000 Russian troops have died, with another 500,000 wounded. These staggering numbers represent approximately 90% of the personnel Moscow had at the start of the conflict.
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To offset these losses, the Kremlin has resorted to desperate measures, such as recruiting 20,000 new soldiers each month. However, many of these recruits come from Russia’s far-east republics, such as Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Yakutia, and Dagestan—regions far removed from Moscow’s political center. This geographic pattern reflects a long-standing strategy of minimizing the political fallout of casualties in the capital.
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The Russian government has also intensified its efforts to conscript citizens by introducing a tougher draft law on November 1. This new law leverages digital infrastructure to deliver draft notices online, making it almost impossible for potential recruits to evade the call.
Once a notice is sent to a man’s digital mailbox, he is immediately barred from leaving the country. The government can now track individuals through their online interactions, such as tax payments or passport renewals, ensuring that draft dodgers face significant obstacles.
Desperation and Alternative Recruitment Strategies
Russia’s desperation to find soldiers has led it to pursue unconventional and controversial strategies. One notable tactic is the recruitment of prisoners, including those convicted of violent crimes.
This approach has significantly reduced the prison population but raised ethical concerns and practical challenges. Convicts often lack the discipline and training needed for combat, and their integration into regular units has proven problematic.
There have also been reports of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine, a revelation that underscores Russia’s recruitment crisis. However, this strategy comes with its own set of challenges.
North Korean troops have no combat experience in modern warfare, follow different military tactics, and face language barriers that hinder coordination with Russian forces. Some Russian soldiers have reportedly expressed frustration, stating that they do not know what to do with these foreign recruits.
In a further sign of desperation, Putin may attempt to pressure Belarus into providing military support. Belarusian soldiers are familiar with Russian tactics and operations, making them a more practical option than North Korean troops. However, such a move would be highly unpopular within Belarus and could destabilize the region further.
The Kremlin has also increased financial incentives to attract recruits. The Ministry of Defence has doubled enlistment bonuses and raised salaries, making military service more lucrative than many civilian jobs.
Despite these efforts, the stigma surrounding military service and the fear of being sent to the front lines have made it difficult to fill the ranks. Reports suggest that Russian men are resorting to extreme measures to avoid conscription, such as faking drug dependencies, falsifying medical documents, and even inflicting self-harm.
The Strategic and Political Implications of a Peace Deal
Given these challenges, it is becoming increasingly clear that a peace deal would be in Russia’s strategic interest. The war has drained the country’s resources, strained its economy, and exposed the vulnerabilities of its military infrastructure.
While Russia has made territorial gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, these advances have come at a tremendous cost. The high casualty rate and recruitment difficulties indicate that sustaining the conflict indefinitely is not a viable option.
For Putin, a peace deal could provide a way to consolidate territorial gains while avoiding further military and political fallout. Reports suggest that he may be willing to accept a deal where Russia retains significant portions of Ukrainian territory—roughly the size of the U.S. state of Virginia—in exchange for Ukraine’s neutrality and abandonment of its NATO and EU aspirations. Such an agreement would allow Putin to present the war as a victory to the Russian public, even if the reality is more complex.
The timing of a potential peace deal is also influenced by geopolitical considerations. The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the U.S. presidency offers hope for a more favorable diplomatic environment. Trump’s previous administration took a less confrontational approach toward Russia, and a similar stance could pave the way for negotiations that benefit Moscow.
However, any peace deal would need to address the broader implications of Russia’s military shortcomings. The fact that Putin has resorted to nuclear threats—such as his warning on November 19 in response to a Ukrainian attack using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles—indicates that conventional strategies are failing. Typically, lowering the threshold for nuclear use is a sign of desperation rather than strength.
While Ukraine faces its own challenges, including war fatigue and recruitment issues, it would be a mistake to assume that Russia is negotiating from a position of strength. The Kremlin’s internal struggles, recruitment crisis, and reliance on foreign soldiers highlight its vulnerabilities. A peace deal may ultimately be in both countries’ interests, but it is clear that Russia’s need is more urgent.
In the coming months, the trajectory of the war will depend on several factors, including the ability of both sides to sustain their military efforts and the evolving geopolitical landscape. For now, it appears that Putin’s best hope lies in securing a peace deal that masks the true cost of the conflict.
let’s enjoy few years on earth with peace and happiness….✍🏼🙏