Despite government efforts, Vietnam’s birth rate in 2024 dropped to an all-time low of 1.91 births per woman, sparking concerns about the country’s demographic and economic future. This marked the third consecutive year that the birth rate remained below the replacement level of 2.1, necessary to sustain population stability.
The decline, from 2.01 in 2022 to 1.93 in 2023, underscores a worrying trend that mirrors challenges faced by other East Asian nations. With a population of 100 million, Vietnam risks entering a phase of demographic decline, which could significantly impact its economic development and ability to care for an ageing society.
The Declining Birth Rate: A National Concern
Vietnam’s birth rate hit a historic low in 2024, recording 1.91 births per woman, according to official statistics. This marks the third consecutive year the figure has stayed below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, essential for population stability. The decline follows a steady drop from 2.01 in 2022 to 1.93 in 2023, reflecting a broader trend observed across East Asia.
The replacement rate is crucial for maintaining a balanced demographic structure. Falling below this threshold raises concerns about the sustainability of Vietnam’s economic growth and the ability to support an ageing population.
According to Pham Vu Hoang, deputy director of the Ministry of Health’s population authority, Vietnam’s population of 100 million could begin to shrink by the mid-21st century if current trends persist.
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While restoring and maintaining the replacement rate could lead to annual growth of approximately 0.17 per cent, current projections predict a decline of 0.04 per cent between 2054 and 2059, worsening to a 0.18 per cent annual decrease between 2064 and 2069.
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The birth rate decline in Vietnam reflects a combination of economic, cultural, and policy-related factors. Urbanization and modernization have contributed to shifting priorities among younger generations, who increasingly prioritize education, career, and financial stability over starting families.
Challenges of an Ageing Population
An ageing population is a looming challenge for Vietnam, mirroring issues faced by neighboring nations like Japan, South Korea, and China. By 2049, Vietnam is projected to become a “super-aged society,” with more than 20 per cent of its population aged 65 or older. This demographic shift poses significant economic and social challenges.
Vietnam has experienced robust economic growth, with GDP increasing by over 5 per cent annually, excluding pandemic years. However, sustaining this growth amidst a shrinking and ageing workforce will be difficult.
An older population often leads to increased healthcare costs and pension demands, placing additional strain on public resources. Moreover, a declining working-age population could hinder industrial productivity and innovation, critical drivers of Vietnam’s economic success.
Gender imbalance further complicates Vietnam’s demographic issues. Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong highlighted the persistent disparity of 112 male births for every 100 female births. Although there has been slight improvement, the imbalance remains a concern, exacerbating social challenges and potential marriage market imbalances.
Government Initiatives to Address the Crisis
In response to the declining birth rate, the Vietnamese government has launched several initiatives aimed at reversing the trend and improving population quality. Deputy Minister of Health Do Xuan Tuyen announced that the Ministry of Health is studying policies from other nations to stabilize fertility rates and proposing these measures for Vietnam.
Key initiatives include encouraging women to have children before the age of 35, eliminating penalties for having a third child, and enhancing access to reproductive health and family planning services.
The Ministry of Health is also drafting a population law scheduled for presentation to the National Assembly in 2025. This proposed legislation will aim to sustain replacement-level fertility rates by tailoring policies to different demographics and regions.
Improving elderly healthcare is another priority. The government seeks to address the needs of the growing senior population by enhancing healthcare facilities and creating better social support systems. Additionally, the health ministry is focusing on improving communication strategies to raise awareness about family planning and reproductive health.
Vietnam also recognizes the importance of addressing societal and cultural barriers to higher birth rates. Economic pressures, housing concerns, and the rising cost of living often deter couples from starting families. Providing financial incentives, subsidized childcare, and housing support are potential solutions under consideration.
Learning from Regional Experiences
Vietnam is drawing lessons from neighboring countries with similar demographic challenges. Japan’s extensive support programs for families, South Korea’s policies on work-life balance, and Singapore’s financial incentives for families are being studied for potential adaptation in Vietnam.
However, experts caution that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Cultural and societal norms must be carefully considered to ensure the effectiveness of any measures implemented. Vietnam’s approach will likely require a blend of targeted economic, social, and healthcare interventions tailored to its unique demographic landscape.
The government’s focus on “population quality” is also crucial. Beyond stabilizing birth rates, efforts are being made to improve overall health and education outcomes for future generations. This includes addressing gender imbalances, promoting gender equality, and fostering an environment where young families can thrive.
Vietnam stands at a critical juncture as it grapples with the dual challenges of a declining birth rate and an ageing population. While the path forward is complex, the government’s proactive steps and willingness to learn from international experiences provide hope for a sustainable demographic and economic future.
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