Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election could have significant implications for Ukraine’s future, including potential peace talks with Russia.
Zelenskyy has expressed hopes that the result will shape NATO’s stance on Ukraine’s membership, as well as future U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. With the conflict now in its third year, the stakes are higher than ever, and Zelenskyy has embarked on a diplomatic mission to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security and sovereignty.
US Elections and NATO: A Critical Moment for Ukraine
Ukraine’s desire to join NATO has been a central focus of its foreign policy, especially since the Russian invasion in 2022. President Zelensky has repeatedly underscored the importance of securing an “immediate” invitation to NATO, viewing membership as a safeguard against future Russian aggression.
While Ukraine has received extensive military, financial, and political support from the West, particularly from the United States, its full NATO membership remains elusive. Zelensky’s recent unveiling of his “Victory Plan” highlighted this as a priority, positioning NATO membership as essential to Ukraine’s security.
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Zelensky has expressed optimism that the U.S. election, scheduled for November 2024, could bring a shift in support for Ukraine’s NATO bid. The U.S. is Ukraine’s most significant backer in the war, and Zelensky believes that, once the election is over, Washington may become more focused on Ukraine’s requests.
“After the election, we hope for a more positive reaction from the United States,” Zelensky told reporters, explaining that the current preoccupation with domestic politics in the U.S. has delayed crucial decisions regarding Ukraine.
However, the potential election of Donald Trump has raised concerns within Kyiv and among Ukraine’s Western allies. Trump, during his previous presidency, expressed skepticism about NATO and has questioned the extent of U.S. military and financial support to Ukraine.
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His potential victory could lead to a reevaluation of U.S. involvement in the conflict, potentially reducing the billions of dollars that Washington has committed to supporting Kyiv. This uncertainty has driven Zelensky to step up his diplomatic outreach, hoping to lock in as much support as possible before the election results are decided.
Despite these concerns, Zelensky remains hopeful that, regardless of the election outcome, the U.S. will continue to back Ukraine. His meetings with Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris have been positive, and he believes that the U.S. will “demonstrate policy very quickly” after the election, without waiting for the formal transition of power in January.
Germany’s Reluctance and NATO’s Internal Divisions
While the U.S. election looms large, NATO’s internal dynamics also play a crucial role in Ukraine’s future. Zelensky has highlighted that, while some NATO countries, such as France and the United Kingdom, are supportive of Ukraine’s membership, others remain cautious. Germany, in particular, has been reluctant to fully endorse Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership due to concerns over how Russia might respond.
“It is a fact that the German side is skeptical about us joining NATO,” Zelensky remarked. He explained that Germany is worried about the potential fallout with Russia, fearing that an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO could escalate the conflict further. These concerns are shared by other NATO members, including Hungary and Slovakia, which have also been hesitant to push for Ukraine’s inclusion in the alliance.
Germany’s reluctance stems from a broader concern about maintaining stability in Europe. The German government has sought to balance support for Ukraine with the need to avoid provoking Russia into more aggressive actions. This cautious approach has frustrated Zelensky, who believes that Ukraine’s security can only be guaranteed through NATO membership.
For Kyiv, NATO represents the only viable option to defend itself against future Russian aggression, especially in the absence of nuclear weapons, which Ukraine gave up in the 1990s in exchange for security assurances from both Russia and the United States.
Germany’s fear of antagonizing Russia is rooted in the broader geopolitical dynamics of the war. As one of the largest economies in Europe and a key player in the European Union, Germany’s position carries significant weight within NATO. However, its reluctance to fully embrace Ukraine’s NATO ambitions has created a divide within the alliance, leaving Ukraine’s membership in limbo.
Hopes for Peace Talks and the Role of the US Election
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election could also shape the possibility of future peace talks with Russia. Zelensky has made it clear that he is not willing to cede any Ukrainian territory in exchange for peace, ruling out any direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, he acknowledges that the U.S. election could be a turning point in the war, particularly in terms of Washington’s policy toward Ukraine.
Zelensky believes that Moscow is closely watching the U.S. election and will base its next steps on the results. If Donald Trump, who has expressed a desire to focus on domestic issues and reduce foreign military commitments, wins the election, there is concern that Russia might see an opportunity to press for more favorable terms in any potential negotiations.
Conversely, if President Joe Biden or another pro-Ukraine candidate wins, it could strengthen Kyiv’s position and potentially lead to renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict on more favorable terms for Ukraine.
At the same time, Zelensky has acknowledged that peace will not come easily. Putin’s demands, which include Ukraine surrendering large portions of its southern and eastern territories, are unacceptable to Kyiv.
Zelensky has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not give up its land in exchange for peace, and he remains committed to defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Speaking at the United Nations Security Council last month, Zelensky declared that Russia “can only be forced into peace,” rejecting any notion of conceding to Russian territorial ambitions.
Ukraine’s position on peace talks is clear: any resolution to the conflict must involve the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. However, the outcome of the U.S. election could determine how much leverage Ukraine has in future negotiations.
If U.S. support remains strong, Ukraine will be in a better position to push for a peace deal that respects its sovereignty. If U.S. support wanes, Kyiv could find itself in a more vulnerable position, potentially pressured into making concessions to end the war.
As the war grinds on, Russia has continued to launch drone and artillery attacks on Ukrainian cities, causing significant casualties. On Tuesday, Russian attacks in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Donetsk killed five people, including a child, underscoring the ongoing human cost of the conflict. Moscow’s forces continue to make advances on the battlefield, leveraging their greater manpower and superior equipment to pressure Ukrainian defenses.
President Zelensky’s hopes for a resolution to the war with Russia are closely tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. With NATO membership still out of reach and Germany’s reluctance to provoke Russia, Ukraine’s future security depends heavily on continued U.S. support.
The upcoming election could determine not only the future of NATO’s involvement in Ukraine but also the prospects for peace talks with Russia. While Zelensky remains optimistic that U.S. policy will remain favorable to Ukraine, the uncertainty surrounding the election has created a critical moment for Kyiv.
As the war enters its third year, Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance, with the U.S. election playing a pivotal role in shaping the next phase of the conflict.
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